Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

53%
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51%
Stable · last 24h
Market closed. Awaiting resolution.
Awaiting resultYES if, between 7:00 PM UTC on October 22, 2026 and no later than November 7, 2026, two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that the Leverkusen city council held a special council session which actually discussed the Rouf family's deportation case. Otherwise NO. • Reports that only announce a planned or scheduled meeting do not count. • Reports that a different body (for example a municipal administrative briefing or a non-Stadtrat committee) discussed the matter do not count. • Source: Independent authoritative news outlets (for example WDR) and official City of Leverkusen statements.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against www1.wdr.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 4 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the strict criteria and the timing, it’s unlikely the council will meet on this within the window. There’s just not enough media coverage expected.

53%
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33%
Stable · last 24h

53%
Stable · last 24h

50%
-2% last 24h

10%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
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