Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

53%
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33%
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YES if, no later than December 3, 2026, either the Labour Party's NEC publicly announces it will reinstate a Labour–Green power‑sharing arrangement in at least one of the 11 councils identified in the BBC story, or an affected council's official minutes or a council press release shows a formal vote, signed agreement, or other authoritative act that reinstates such a power‑sharing arrangement, and that reinstatement is reported by two or more independent reputable news outlets. Otherwise NO. • Only reinstatements announced or recorded on or after November 3, 2026 count. • A NEC announcement must be on the record and explicitly say it will reinstate a Labour–Green power‑sharing arrangement in at least one of the 11 councils. • A council reinstatement must appear in that council's official minutes or press release as a formal vote, signed agreement, or other authoritative act and must be reported by two or more independent reputable news outlets (for example BBC News and The Guardian). • Statements of intent, discussions, or ongoing negotiations do not count. • Reinstatement of a successor authority after a council ceases to exist due to boundary changes or merger does not count. • Source: BBC News.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 4, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 33%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven Labour's current stance and the complexities involved, it's unlikely they will reinstate any power-sharing with the Greens in the next month. Too much at stake politically.

53%
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33%
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53%
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50%
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10%
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43%
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