🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
31%
-1% last 24h
1100 bets · 38.6K credits14
Details →
PoliticsOpened Sep 7 · Results Sep 14
Will Iran publicly announce a new maritime 'exclusion zone' covering part of the Strait of Hormuz?
79%
Stable · last 24h
📊 361 bettors💎 9.3K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 14🤖 Context
The market pays out yes if, by September 14, 2026, two or more independent international news organizations credibly report that an official Iranian body publicly announced a maritime 'exclusion zone' or 'no-go zone' covering any part of the Strait of Hormuz. On September 6 and 7, 2026, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Iranian state media that Tehran would announce an 'exclusion zone' starting from the line of the U.S. naval blockade and extending into the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and independent outlets including AP, Reuters and Al Jazeera reported his public statement. Because multiple independent news organizations reported this public announcement describing a restricted area that covers part of the Strait before the deadline, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes79%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible news outlets reported that a senior Iranian official publicly used the phrase and described such a zone. In reporting dated Sept. 6–7, 2026, Mohsen Rezaei (Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council) told Iranian state media that Tehran would announce an "exclusion zone"/restricted zone that would begin from the line of the U.S. naval blockade and extend toward/into the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. AP (carried by PBS/Fortune), Reuters and Al Jazeera (among others) independently reported Rezaei’s public statement. That public statement by an Iranian government/security official meets the market’s counting rule (use of the phrase and description of an area covering part of the Strait) within the deadline.
Source: apnews.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 79%
- Predictions made
- 361
- Credits staked
- 9,316
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 7, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 14, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 18, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- apnews.com, reuters.com, aljazeera.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledRelated predictions
See all →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will any city or department in metropolitan France be put under a legally binding curfew?
94%
Stable · last 24h
1038 bets · 41.5K credits14
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Nov 7 · Results Nov 8
Will terrorism charges be filed in connection with the Paris‑suburb shootings?
66%
-8% last 24h
624 bets · 24.6K credits4
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 2 · Results Nov 4
Will Missouri use the Republican-backed congressional map for ballots in the November general election?
40%
Stable · last 24h
575 bets · 18.8K credits6
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 3 · Results Nov 4
Will the Missouri Secretary of State tell every county to use the 2022 congressional map for the 2026 general election?
64%
Stable · last 24h
565 bets · 18.8K credits4
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 26 · Results Oct 27
Will Iran and Saudi Arabia announce Iran-mediated talks between Riyadh and the Houthis?
32%
-1% last 24h
525 bets · 18K credits2
Details →