🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
32%
Stable · last 24h
1043 bets · 36.4K credits14
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PoliticsOpened Sep 19 · Results Oct 3
Will Édouard Philippe poll ahead of Jean‑Luc Mélenchon in the most recent French poll?
63%
Stable · last 24h
📊 2301 bettors💎 91.6K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 3🤖 Context
The market resolves yes if the most recent poll listed in the “Main voting-intention” table on Wikipedia, as it appears at 00:00 CEST on 4 October 2026, shows Édouard Philippe's published percentage strictly greater than Jean‑Luc Mélenchon's. The most recent row is the Ifop poll with fieldwork from 25 to 29 September 2026, which published Philippe at 16% and Mélenchon at 15%. Because 16% is greater than 15%, the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes63%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: In the most recent poll row on the Wikipedia "Main voting‑intention" table as of 2026-10-04T00:00:00+02:00, Édouard Philippe's published numeric percentage must be strictly greater than Jean‑Luc Mélenchon's. Target (most recent) poll in supplied data: Ifop, fieldwork 25-29 Sep 2026. Observed values in that row: Jean‑Luc Mélenchon = 15, Édouard Philippe = 16. Comparison: 16 > 15, so the condition is satisfied → YES.
Source: en.wikipedia.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 63%
- Predictions made
- 2,301
- Credits staked
- 91,599
- Comments
- 38
- Opened
- Sep 19, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 3, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 3, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- en.wikipedia.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 38 comments
- ⚔️
According to the presidential election poll for 2027 published on October 1, 2026 (conducted by Ifop from September 25 to 29), Édouard Philippe outpaced Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round, gathering 19% of voting intentions compared to 16% for the latter, which validates the result.
- 🔥
Melenchon will benefit from the student movement
- 🦊
Treatment of the yellow vests with mistreatment, increase in fuel taxes, LFI appears for some as the solution with an increase in the minimum wage and taxes on the wealthier...
- 🦊
Because the news from LFI and that of the RN can benefit the center today.
- 🛡️
The French do not want the permanent chaos of LFI. They want rigor and stability.
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