Will Iran publicly accept the U.S. response to its latest offer to end the war?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 23The market resolves yes if, on or before 22 August 2026, the Gard prefecture published a prefectural arrêté covering any commune that explicitly prohibits non‑priority water uses, or if Propluvia shows any part of Gard at a restriction level whose official text forbids such uses, or if two or more independent authoritative news outlets report such an arrêté. Official records show VigiEau lists a Gard arrêté effective 21 August 2026 at the “crise” level, and the prefecture’s website on 22/08/2026 together with Nîmes Métropole describe reinforced measures saying that at “crise” only priority uses remain and that watering, car washing and pool filling are forbidden or restricted. Because an official arrêté covering parts of Gard was in force by 21 August 2026 and its text forbids non‑priority uses, the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled93%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 93% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Official sources show that the prefecture placed parts of the Gard under high restriction levels by 21 August 2026 and that those niveaux (alerte/alerte renforcée/crise) explicitly prohibit non‑priority uses (e.g. watering schedules, car washing, pool filling). The VigiEau entry lists a Gard arrêté (effective 2026-08-21) at level “crise” with a link to the arrêté PDF; the prefecture’s site (22/08/2026) states the préfète reinforced restrictions and describes the measures for each level (noting that in crisis only priority uses remain and that at lower levels car washing, pool filling and garden watering are forbidden or time‑restricted); Nîmes Métropole’s page likewise sets out the concrete interdictions and links to the arrêté. Together these official and local sources show at least some communes in Gard were covered by a préfectoral arrêté that explicitly prohibited non‑priority water uses on or before 2026-08-22.
Source: vigieau.gouv.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven Propluvia's current restrictions and the urgent need for action due to ongoing drought conditions, I expect the prefecture to issue a ban before the deadline. It's likely this will happen.

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