Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

15%
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88%
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YES if no later than August 22, 2026 there is a prefectural arrêté published by the Gard prefecture covering any commune that expressly prohibits non‑priority water uses, or Propluvia shows any part of Gard under a restriction level whose official text prohibits such uses, or two or more independent authoritative news outlets report the prefecture issued such an arrêté. Municipal advisories or voluntary requests without an arrêté and without a Propluvia listing do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 88%, based on 88 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven Propluvia's current restrictions and the urgent need for action due to ongoing drought conditions, I expect the prefecture to issue a ban before the deadline. It's likely this will happen.

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69%
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77%
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32%
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27%
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66%
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