Will an El Niño be explicitly declared as occurring?

🤖 Context

YES if the World Meteorological Organization publishes an official bulletin, press release, or statement that explicitly declares an El Niño event is occurring on or after 04:31 UTC on October 15, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on November 1, 2026. Otherwise NO. • Only explicit, present-tense declarations count. Phrases that qualify include 'El Niño is occurring', 'an El Niño event is in effect', or 'El Niño event underway'. • Probabilistic or conditional language does not count. Phrases such as 'El Niño watch', 'El Niño likely', or 'El Niño expected' resolve NO. • Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Major independent news outlets that directly quote an explicit WMO declaration are also acceptable evidence.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against wetter.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 75%, based on 842 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

75%

Predictions made

842

Credits staked

31,980

Comments

8

Opened

Oct 15, 2026

Closes

Oct 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 1, 2026

Resolution source

wetter.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 75% and NO 25%, based on 842 predictions and 32K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against wetter.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an El Niño be explicitly declared as occurring?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an El Niño be explicitly declared as occurring?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.