Will SpaceX make at least one Starship orbital launch attempt that achieves vertical liftoff?

🤖 Context

YES if SpaceX conducts at least one Starship orbital launch attempt that achieves vertical liftoff (the vehicle leaves its launch mount under powered ascent) on or after 9:06:10.899 UTC on October 12, 2026 and no later than 23:59:59 UTC on October 31, 2026. Otherwise NO. • Pad aborts, rollbacks, and ground tests that do not result in the vehicle leaving the launch mount do not count. • Attempts before 9:06:10.899 UTC on October 12, 2026 do not count. • Source: SpaceX mission updates, FAA or USSF launch notices, or independent reporting from major outlets.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 853 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

63%

Predictions made

853

Credits staked

30,992

Comments

8

Opened

Oct 12, 2026

Closes

Oct 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 1, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 63% and NO 37%, based on 853 predictions and 31K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will SpaceX make at least one Starship orbital launch attempt that achieves vertical liftoff?” real-money betting?

No. “Will SpaceX make at least one Starship orbital launch attempt that achieves vertical liftoff?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.