Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

53%
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42%
-2% last 24h
YES if investigators or an official investigative agency publicly state by no later than November 20, 2026 that they have established a link between the bomb threats sent to European airlines and the threats made against media outlets, and two or more independent reputable news outlets report that statement. Otherwise NO. • Only public statements made on or after November 6, 2026 count. • Statements that investigators are merely "looking into", "considering" or "have not ruled out" a link do not count. • Source: two or more independent reputable news outlets reporting investigators' public statement.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 42%, based on 249 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settled
53%
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33%
Stable · last 24h

53%
Stable · last 24h

51%
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10%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
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