Sam Altman
Live prediction markets about Sam Altman. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
65%
crowd accuracy
82/127
right calls
16
open questions
Biggest miss
Will OpenAI's DevDay on September 29 include a public tease, demo, or announcement of creator-focused products?
NoThe crowd was 94% sure, and they got it wrong.
Hot right now
Open questions16
- Will the full set of documents Gina Hinojosa requested be publicly released?Closes Nov 44 predictions32%Yes
- Will Elon Musk post fewer than 40 posts on X?Closes Oct 26 · Results Oct 282 predictions33%Yes
- Will Hamburg adopt binding Schutzkonzepte requiring schools to protect children and adolescents from sexualized violence?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 21 prediction67%Yes
- Will OpenAI complete its IPO and begin trading on a U.S. stock exchange by December 31, 2026?Results Jan 12005 predictions67%Yes
How it turned out127
- Will the senior adviser to Prime Minister Mark Carney be publicly questioned in the House of Commons about the alleged NATO spy screening?Yes
The crowd was 78% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 25 - Will OpenAI publish at least one new public misalignment report?Yes
The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 24 - Will Astra 6.1 be released to the public?No
The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 23 - Will OpenAI resume training on October 12?No
The crowd was 81% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 23 - Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 11?No
The crowd was 88% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 23 - Will Elon Musk post 0–19 tweets?No
The crowd was 59% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 22 - Will Vercel’s OpenAI share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs on Oct 20 be above 21.7%?No
The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 22 - Will CBC publish an interview with Anne Carson?No
The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.
Oct 22 - Did OpenAI have more than 20.5% of the text market on OpenRouter?No
The crowd was 77% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 20 - Will OpenAI's share of OpenRouter's text market be above 19.2%?No
The crowd was 75% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 19