Will the new cold front cause very heavy localized rainfall in Chihuahua on October 22?

🤖 Context

YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) or Chihuahua state Protección Civil issues an on-the-record bulletin saying Chihuahua had "very heavy localized rainfall" on October 22, 2026 and explicitly attributes those rains to the new cold front described in SMN's 20 October 2026 bulletin, no later than 9:00 AM on October 23, 2026 (UTC-6). Otherwise NO. • Only an explicit statement using "lluvias puntuales muy fuertes" or a clear English equivalent such as "very heavy localized rainfall" counts. Lesser intensities like "lluvias puntuales fuertes" or "showers" do not qualify. • If SMN does not publish such a bulletin, the market also resolves YES if at least two independent Mexican news outlets publish on-the-record reports saying Chihuahua had "lluvias puntuales muy fuertes" on October 22, 2026 and explicitly attribute it to that new front, by the same cutoff. • Source: Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) or Protección Civil of the state of Chihuahua, or at least two independent Mexican news outlets.

Key facts

Crowd probability

59%

Predictions made

6

Credits staked

323

Comments

1

Opened

Oct 20, 2026

Closes

Oct 22, 2026

Resolved

Oct 24, 2026

Outcome

No

Resolution source

elfinanciero.com.mx