Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?

29%
Stable · last 24h

40%
-3% last 24h
YES if an operational advisory from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), or another recognized tropical-cyclone warning agency explicitly states that the centre of Super Typhoon Champi's surface circulation crossed Taiwan's coastline no later than October 30, 2026. Otherwise NO. • The advisory must explicitly say "landfall" or state the centre crossed the coastline. • Source: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), or major international news outlets quoting those agencies.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 30, 2026. The outcome will be settled against theweathernetwork.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 182 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe short answer is therefore: probably not, but it's not certain. The current official trajectory predicts a very close pass to the northeast of Taiwan rather than a direct impact, but a slight shift to the west or a slowdown could still cause a reach.
It seems that it is heading towards Japan while passing near the coasts but should not make landfall.
He should pass by.

29%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

63%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

80%
Stable · last 24h

60%
+1% last 24h
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