Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 16The market required that, by 15 September 2026 inclusive, an official French government authority publicly announce that the Fibre Excellence plant in Saint‑Gaudens would be temporarily nationalised or placed under provisional public administration. On 3 September 2026 Industry Minister Sébastien Martin publicly rejected nationalisation, and on 7 September 2026 the government offered a limited temporary financing package of up to €2 million while saying nationalisation was not appropriate. Because no decree, ministerial order, or official statement transferred control of the Saint‑Gaudens plant before 15 September 2026, the condition was not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled14%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 86% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied reporting contains direct, public statements from the French government (Industry Minister Sébastien Martin) denying nationalisation and describing alternative steps. AFP (via Yahoo) reports the minister on 2026-09-03 explicitly ’écarte l'option d'une nationalisation, même temporaire’ (rejecting nationalisation). ICI.fr (2026-09-07) reports the government offering limited temporary financing (up to €2m to sustain activity) while explicitly saying nationalisation is not a pertinent response. Other items in the pool recount calls for temporary nationalisation but show the minister/government rejecting that option or instead providing limited funding/extension. No source in the provided evidence shows an official French government authority announcing a measure that effects temporary nationalisation or placing the Saint‑Gaudens plant under temporary public administration by 2026-09-15. Therefore the correct settlement is NO.
Source: fr.finance.yahoo.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith just a week left, the lack of any substantial announcements makes a temporary nationalisation seem unlikely. The current climate is more about support measures than formal control shifts.

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