Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

31%
-6% last 24h

27%
Stable · last 24h
YES if no later than September 15, 2026 an official French government authority publicly announces a measure that effects temporary nationalisation or places the Fibre Excellence site in Saint‑Gaudens under temporary public administration. This includes a decree, ministerial order, or an official government press release or statement, for example from Matignon, the Ministry of Economy/Industry, or the Prime Minister, explicitly saying 'nationalisation temporaire', 'placement sous administration provisoire', or an equivalent transfer of control to a public body. Otherwise NO. Announcements limited to loans, guarantees, negotiations, or other non‑binding support measures that do not effect a formal transfer of control count as NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against france3-regions.franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 27%, based on 18 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just a week left, the lack of any substantial announcements makes a temporary nationalisation seem unlikely. The current climate is more about support measures than formal control shifts.

31%
-6% last 24h

27%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h

68%
+10% last 24h

61%
+11% last 24h
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