Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 13YES if the Falcon 9 first-stage booster used on CRS-35 completed a confirmed recovery landing and was declared recovered or intact after the CRS-35 launch on October 13, 2026, otherwise NO. • A confirmed touchdown on the designated landing platform or drone ship followed by a declaration that the booster was recovered or intact is required to resolve YES. • Confirmation from SpaceX or NASA, or clear independent imagery or live reporting that shows recovery, is acceptable. • Source: SpaceX or NASA.
How markets are built and settled22%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 78% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: YES. On October 13, 2026, the first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket (booster B1096) used for NASA's CRS-35 resupply mission successfully and confirmed a recovery landing at Landing Zone 40 at Cape Canaveral Station in Florida. The intact return of the booster was validated live by images and official confirmations from NASA and SpaceX.
Source: m.economictimes.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
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