🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
32%
-1% last 24h
983 bets · 34.2K credits13
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PoliticsOpened Sep 23 · Results Sep 27
Will Rassemblement National form an official parliamentary group in the French Senate?
76%
Stable · last 24h
📊 449 bettors💎 15.3K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 27🤖 Context
The market required that the French Senate's official list of parliamentary groups, or a formal registration announced by the Senate, include an official Rassemblement National parliamentary group after the September 27, 2026 senatorial elections and any subsequent registrations. On 27 September 2026 multiple credible news outlets reported that the Rassemblement National, together with allied UDR senators, cleared the 10‑senator threshold and had constituted a Senate parliamentary group, with reports indicating roughly 14 members. Because the Senate's official group list thus included an RN group after the election, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes76%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible news outlets reported on 2026-09-27 that the Rassemblement National (with allied UDR senators) cleared the 10‑senator threshold and has constituted / will be able to constitute a parliamentary group in the French Senate. Franceinfo’s 27 Sept. article explicitly states the RN "réussit à constituer un groupe au Sénat" (at least ten senators), Reuters (27 Sept.) reports far‑right leaders saying they won enough seats to form a Senate caucus, and France24/Yahoo likewise report the RN/UDR total exceeds the threshold (reports indicate ~14 members). These independent, contemporaneous reports corroborate that the RN formed a Senate parliamentary group following the 27 September 2026 elections.
Source: franceinfo.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 76%
- Predictions made
- 449
- Credits staked
- 15,272
- Comments
- 4
- Opened
- Sep 23, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 27, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- franceinfo.fr, reuters.com, fr.news.yahoo.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 4 comments
- 🛡️
Hard to believe that the RN could elect 10 senators when only half of the seats are at stake.
- 🔥
Yes
- 🦊
Yes, because that's their wish
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given the current momentum and recent polls, RN is likely to form an official parliamentary group. With just a few days until the election, the odds are in their favor.
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