Will Popocatépetl cause ashfall in southwest Puebla?

🤖 Context

YES if, during the interval from 22:00 on September 19, 2026 through no later than 10:00 on September 20, 2026 (Mexico City time), any Mexican government bulletin or widely reported news item confirms ashfall or ash deposition in the southwest of the State of Puebla and attributes it to Popocatépetl. Preferred sources are CENAPRED or SMN/CONAGUA. A statement from Puebla state Protección Civil or reporting by two or more independent Mexican national or regional news outlets with photos or official-source quotes also qualifies. Satellite-only detection of an ash plume without any report of ground ashfall does not qualify.

Key facts

Crowd probability

86%

Predictions made

55

Credits staked

1,208

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 19, 2026

Closes

Sep 20, 2026

Resolved

Sep 25, 2026

Outcome

No