Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

10%
-1% last 24h

33%
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YES if, no later than September 4, 2026, the U.S. government (the White House, the U.S. Department of the Treasury/OFAC, or the U.S. Department of State) publicly announces in an official press release or statement a sanctions action described as a new measure targeting Iran or Iranian persons/entities, or if two or more independent major international news organizations report that the U.S. has publicly announced such new sanctions. Routine administrative reissuances explicitly described as not new do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 33%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current geopolitical climate and rising tensions, I expect new sanctions on Iran to be announced before the deadline. It's likely in just under two weeks.

10%
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41%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h

60%
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55%
+7% last 24h
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