Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 14YES if NATO’s North Atlantic Council convenes a formal meeting (an official in-person session or a formally convened videoconference) in which the Oct. 6, 2026 drone attacks on two commercial vessels in Bulgaria’s Black Sea economic zone are a listed agenda item or are publicly discussed no later than October 13, 2026. Otherwise NO. • A formal meeting means an official in-person session or a formally convened videoconference. Informal consultations, private bilateral talks, offers to consult, or media speculation do not count. • A meeting must be reported by two or more independent authoritative news outlets to resolve YES. Closed sessions count if two or more such outlets report they occurred and addressed the incident. • Source: Reports from two or more independent authoritative news outlets; preferably also a NATO press release or a statement by the NATO Secretary‑General.
How markets are built and settled28%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 72% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Bulgarian Vice President Iliana Iotova publicly confirmed that the North Atlantic Council held a session where the Black Sea was included as an extraordinary item on the agenda to address the attacks. The council explicitly discussed the incident, arranging allied support for the technical investigation into the October 6, 2026 drone attacks on the commercial vessels Alfa Watan and Able, alongside drafting additional maritime and airspace surveillance measures for Bulgaria.
Source: bta.bgSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
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