Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?

32%
Stable · last 24h

56%
Stable · last 24h
Market closed. Awaiting resolution.
Results Jan 1YES if the Shock Detectives project (studying the solar‑wind bow shock) has received 50,000 or more unique participant contributions by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, as reported by NASA’s official project metrics or announcements. NO if fewer than 50,000 unique contributions are recorded by that time.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome will be settled against science.nasa.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 56%, based on 2003 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledNo comments yet. Start the conversation!

32%
Stable · last 24h

77%
Stable · last 24h

64%
Stable · last 24h

42%
+1% last 24h

80%
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40%
-2% last 24h
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