🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
32%
-1% last 24h
934 bets · 32.9K credits11
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PoliticsOpened Oct 4 · Results Oct 12
Will Mediapart publish new articles presenting authenticated Messenger/Facebook messages attributed to Jordan Bardella?
66%
Stable · last 24h
📊 550 bettors💎 21.2K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 12🤖 Context
YES if Mediapart publishes on its website or on verified social accounts at least one new article that explicitly presents and labels new authenticated Messenger or Facebook messages or new authentication evidence attributed to Jordan Bardella between 07:01:14 UTC on October 4, 2026 and no later than October 11, 2026. Otherwise NO. • The article must appear on Mediapart's website or on Mediapart's verified social accounts. Opinion pieces, commentary, or republication without any new authentication evidence do not count. • Authentication evidence means items such as message metadata exports, copies certified by an official (huissier), forensic exports, or other documentary proof that the article explicitly presents as authentication. • Source: Mediapart.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes66%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Mediapart published a new investigative article on Friday, October 9, 2026, presenting new evidence and additional Messenger conversations to support its previous disclosures regarding antisemitic statements attributed to Jordan Bardella. In this follow-up publication, Mediapart detailed that it had obtained three other conversations from interlocutors of Bardella retrieved via Meta, strengthening the technical link between the incriminated Facebook account and the president of the RN
Source: podcasts.apple.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 66%
- Predictions made
- 550
- Credits staked
- 21,202
- Comments
- 13
- Opened
- Oct 4, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 11, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 12, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- podcasts.apple.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 13 comments
- 🦊
YES. On October 9, Mediapart published new documentary elements corroborating the authenticity of the Messenger messages attributed to Jordan Bardella. Publication on time and in accordance with market criteria.
- 🪙
I imagine them working in terms of a campaign, not just on a single buzz article. I don't always agree with their stance, but they get the job done.
- 🦊
I don't think so. Mediapart did the job by publishing the information as well as the evidence. I think it's over for Bardella, at least for now.
- 🔥
They will surely publish articles proving the authenticity of the messages but not new ones; if they had found others, they would have released them all at the same time.
- 💰
The resolution is not good! It's on their website or their social networks! The resolution is on a podcast from France TV....
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