🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
32%
Stable · last 24h
1061 bets · 36.9K credits14
Details →
PoliticsOpened Sep 25 · Results Oct 9
Will Marine Tondelier poll ahead of Fabien Roussel on October 10?
81%
Stable · last 24h
📊 437 bettors💎 17.1K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 9🤖 Context
The market counts as yes if, on the Wikipedia page 'Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election' as it appears on October 10, 2026 at 00:00 CEST, the numeric percentage shown for Marine Tondelier in the topmost row of the 'Recent polls' table is strictly greater than the numeric percentage shown for Fabien Roussel. On the page snapshot at that time the topmost poll is an Ifop poll with fieldwork 25–29 September 2026, listing Marine Tondelier at 3% and Fabien Roussel at 2.5%. Because 3% is strictly greater than 2.5% the condition is met, so the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes81%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 81% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: Using the Wikipedia page snapshot at 2026-10-10T00:00:00+02:00, compare the numeric percentages in the topmost row of the 'Recent polls' table: resolve YES if Marine Tondelier's displayed percentage is strictly greater than Fabien Roussel's. Observed topmost row (most recent first) in the supplied data: Ifop | fieldwork 25–29 Sep 2026. In that row Fabien Roussel = 2.5 and Marine Tondelier = 3 (both numeric values as displayed). Comparison: 3 > 2.5, so the market resolves YES.
Source: en.wikipedia.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 81%
- Predictions made
- 437
- Credits staked
- 17,080
- Comments
- 4
- Opened
- Sep 25, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 9, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 9, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- en.wikipedia.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 4 comments
Related predictions
See all →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will any city or department in metropolitan France be put under a legally binding curfew?
94%
Stable · last 24h
1031 bets · 41.3K credits14
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 2 · Results Nov 4
Will Missouri use the Republican-backed congressional map for ballots in the November general election?
40%
Stable · last 24h
575 bets · 18.8K credits6
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 3 · Results Nov 4
Will the Missouri Secretary of State tell every county to use the 2022 congressional map for the 2026 general election?
64%
Stable · last 24h
565 bets · 18.8K credits4
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 26 · Results Oct 27
Will Iran and Saudi Arabia announce Iran-mediated talks between Riyadh and the Houthis?
33%
-1% last 24h
519 bets · 17.6K credits2
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Nov 7 · Results Nov 8
Will terrorism charges be filed in connection with the Paris‑suburb shootings?
63%
Stable · last 24h
509 bets · 20.8K credits3
Details →