Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if public seismological records as of 06:00 UTC on September 9, 2026 show at least one earthquake with reported magnitude ≥ 4.9 located in Japan that occurred between 00:00 on September 6, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on September 9, 2026. Use the magnitude value published by the authoritative source, and if different agencies report different magnitudes for the same event, count it as meeting the threshold if any authoritative source reports magnitude ≥ 4.9. Resolve using the USGS (NEIC) catalog when possible; equivalent records from other national or international agencies such as the JMA or EMSC, or multiple reputable news reports, are also admissible.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 31%, based on 65 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

31%

Predictions made

65

Credits staked

2,360

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 5, 2026

Closes

Sep 6, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 9, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 31% and NO 69%, based on 65 predictions and 2.4K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.