Will Iran-backed Houthi rebels launch an attack that strikes or attempts to strike commercial merchant ships in the southern Red Sea or the Bab al‑Mandeb?

🤖 Context

YES if credible reporting by two or more independent major international news outlets (for example AP, Reuters, BBC) or by an official maritime-security authority (for example UKMTO, the U.S. Fifth Fleet, or a coastal-state navy) reports that between September 17, 2026 and September 23, 2026 inclusive (local Arabia Standard Time, UTC+03:00) the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) launched an attack, including missiles, armed drones, explosive boats, or naval gunfire, that struck, impacted, or was reported to have attempted to strike one or more commercial merchant vessels or commercial maritime infrastructure in the southern Red Sea or the Bab al‑Mandeb strait. Otherwise NO, unless the only evidence consists of uncorroborated social‑media posts with no independent reporting.

Key facts

Crowd probability

49%

Predictions made

290

Credits staked

7,472

Comments

2

Opened

Sep 16, 2026

Closes

Sep 16, 2026

Resolved

Sep 28, 2026

Outcome

No