🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 10
Will Falcon 9 booster B1103 land on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You'?
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-46% last 24h
634 bets · 26.8K credits4
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ScienceOpened Sep 26 · Results Sep 28
Will Hurricane Nolo make landfall on any Hawaiian island?
42%
Stable · last 24h
📊 118 bettors💎 3.2K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 28🤖 Context
The market required that, by 8:00 AM HST on September 28, 2026, official U.S. meteorological advisories, Hawaiian state or county emergency statements, or major wire services report the center of Hurricane Nolo physically crossed the coastline of any Hawaiian island. Multiple credible reports including AP coverage carried by PBS and NPR, AP News, Yale Climate Connections, and Fox Weather say the NHC and local officials reported Nolo remained offshore, with Fox Weather noting its closest approach was about 140 miles south of the Big Island on September 26 and other outlets saying the storm was moving away. Because no official advisory or major wire service reported the storm’s center crossing any Hawaiian coastline by the deadline, the condition was not met and the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No42%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 58% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible news reports in the supplied evidence state that Hurricane Nolo remained offshore and did not have its center cross any Hawaiian coastline by the deadline. Fox Weather reports Nolo’s closest approach was about 140 miles south of the Big Island (its closest approach on Sept. 26). PBS (AP), NPR (AP), Yale Climate Connections and AP News all report the NHC and local officials saying the storm’s center remained well south/southwest of the islands or that Nolo was moving away. None of the supplied sources report the cyclone’s center making landfall on any Hawaiian island on or before 8:00 AM HST on 2026-09-28, so the evidence supports NO.
Source: foxweather.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 42%
- Predictions made
- 118
- Credits staked
- 3,199
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 26, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 26, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 28, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- foxweather.com, npr.org, pbs.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 👽
No
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Nolo seems poised to impact Hawaii directly. Given the forecast and timing, it's likely that the center will make landfall before the deadline.
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