Will SpaceX launch Starlink 15‑25 (27 V2 Mini satellites) from Vandenberg on October 10?

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YES if the first-stage used on the Starlink 15-25 launch, listed prelaunch as B1088, made a controlled touchdown on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You' and was recovered on the deck no later than 10 October 2026. Otherwise NO. • A tip-over, loss at sea, an onshore landing, or failure to recover count as NO. • If the booster tail number is not explicitly mentioned but credible sources confirm the mission’s first stage landed on that droneship, count as YES. • Source: SpaceX, Spaceflight Now, or major wire services.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 86%, based on 177 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThat's how it is
With only a few days until the launch, SpaceX has a solid track record for booster landings. I'm confident B1088 will land on the droneship intact.

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