Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

47%
Stable · last 24h

90%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the topmost poll row in the main national voting‑intention table on the Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election", as it appears at 00:00 on 22 September 2026 (CEST), shows Gabriel Attal with a strictly higher numeric percentage than Raphaël Glucksmann. If the two percentages are equal, if either candidate's cell is blank, non‑numeric, shows a dash, or if either candidate is not listed in that topmost row, the market resolves NO. If a cell contains multiple numeric values, use the first numeric value shown.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 90%, based on 94 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith Attal at 13% and Glucksmann at 11% from the latest poll, he has a solid chance to pull ahead before the deadline. Expect a close race, but Attal likely comes out on top.

47%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

79%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

47%
Stable · last 24h
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