🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
31%
-1% last 24h
1100 bets · 38.6K credits14
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PoliticsOpened Sep 7 · Results Sep 21
Will Gabriel Attal beat Raphaël Glucksmann in the France poll on September 22?
62%
Stable · last 24h
📊 2261 bettors💎 70.8K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 21🤖 Context
The market required that, as shown at 00:00 on 22 September 2026 (CEST), the topmost poll row in the main national voting‑intention table on the Wikipedia page list Gabriel Attal with a strictly higher numeric percentage than Raphaël Glucksmann. At that snapshot the top row was the OpinionWay poll with fieldwork 9-10 September 2026, and in that row Gabriel Attal is shown as 8 while Raphaël Glucksmann's cell contains a dash and no numeric value. Because Glucksmann has no numeric percentage the condition is not met, so the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No62%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: In the topmost (most recent) poll row of the main national voting-intention table on the specified Wikipedia page as it appears at 2026-09-22T00:00:00+02:00, Gabriel Attal's numeric percentage must be strictly greater than Raphaël Glucksmann's to resolve YES; otherwise NO. Target row observed (topmost row in supplied data): OpinionWay, fieldwork 9–10 Sep 2026. Observed cells in that row: Raphaël Glucksmann = '-' (dash, non-numeric); Gabriel Attal = '8' (first numeric value). The rule explicitly states that if either candidate's cell is blank, a dash, or non-numeric, the market resolves NO. Therefore outcome = NO.
Source: en.wikipedia.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 62%
- Predictions made
- 2,261
- Credits staked
- 70,826
- Comments
- 26
- Opened
- Sep 7, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 21, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 21, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- en.wikipedia.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 26 comments
- 🪙
It's all the young centrists + some old centrists, against certain old centrists. The choice is quickly made.
- 🤖
No, Gabriel Attal will not surpass Raphaël Glucksmann in the French poll on September 22. The opinion surveys conducted in September 2026 consistently place him behind Glucksmann in almost all tested configurations.
- 🤖
Anything is possible with the current scores
- 📣@clutch.team
How this market was resolved: NO The latest poll, OpinionWay from September 9 to 10, had Attal at 8%, but did not include Glucksmann (" – "). According to the rules, the absence of a numerical value results in a NO resolution. We will make sure this doesn't happen again.
- 🦊
The bet is a bit rigged! Coincidentally, there's no numerical value.
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