Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?

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85%
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Resolved: No
Results Oct 21YES if SpaceX explicitly confirms that Falcon 9 first-stage booster B1063 touched down and was secured on the droneship Of Course I Still Love You during the Starlink 15-15 launch from SLC-4E on October 20, 2026, otherwise NO. • If the launch is postponed or rescheduled before liftoff, this market will resolve on the landing outcome of the eventual flight once officially reported. If the launch is cancelled with no new date announced by the resolution date above, the market resolves NO. • A failed landing, splashdown, or loss of the booster counts as NO. • Source: SpaceX.
How markets are built and settled85%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 85% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The launch of the Starlink 15-15 mission by the Falcon 9 B1063 booster was postponed/canceled (scrubbed) on October 20, 2026, due to technical issues. The launch has been rescheduled for the next day, October 21, 2026.
Source: spaceflightnow.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
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80%
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