Will a majority of valid votes in Guinea-Bissau's August 30 referendum be 'Yes' to give the president expanded powers?

90%
Stable · last 24h

58%
Stable · last 24h
YES if VoteHub's national 30-day trailing "Approve" average for Donald Trump's job approval, as shown on VoteHub's polls page for September 15, 2026, is strictly greater than 38.0 percentage points, otherwise NO. If VoteHub does not display a numeric national "Approve" aggregate for Trump on September 15, 2026, contemporaneous reporting from major national news outlets or other public polling aggregators that quote the numeric national "Approve" average for Trump on that date may be used to settle the market. If the applicable source shows exactly 38.0%, the market resolves NO, and use the site-displayed aggregate number as shown without recomputing or re-weighting component polls; only the "Approve" percentage counts, not favorability or other metrics.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against votehub.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 58%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith a current approval at 38.3%, it seems likely Trump will stay above 38% on the 15th, especially given the short timeframe. Public sentiment can shift, but he's on the cusp now.

90%
Stable · last 24h

81%
Stable · last 24h

35%
Stable · last 24h

25%
-6% last 24h

31%
-1% last 24h

36%
Stable · last 24h
Cookies on Clutch
We use cookies to measure how Clutch is used and to show ads. Nothing is tracked until you choose. Privacy Policy