Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater?

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Resolved: No
Results Oct 23The market pays out yes if Météo‑France’s archived Vigilance map for October 22, 2026 shows at least one metropolitan French département, coastal zone, or the national alert at orange or red for the hazard "orages" (thunderstorms) at any time that day. On 22 October 2026 the archive shows "orages" only at yellow for Côtes-d'Armor (22), Finistère (29), Manche (50), Morbihan (56), Pas-de-Calais (62), Seine-Maritime (76), Somme (80) and the national roll-up FRANCE, while the orange/red entries that day applied only to the hazard "vent violent" for 22, 29, 56 and FRANCE. Because no metropolitan département, coastal zone, or the national roll-up was orange or red for "orages" on 22 October 2026, the condition is not met and the market resolves to no.
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Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: At least one metropolitan French département, coastal zone, or the national roll‑up is at level orange (3) or rouge (4) for hazard 'orages' (thunderstorms) at any time on 2026-10-22. Target window: the entire calendar day 2026-10-22. Observations (from the supplied authoritative Météo‑France archived Vigilance map for 2026-10-22, stated to be exhaustive): the ORANGE/ROUGE table lists only Vent violent (violent wind) at orange for 22 Côtes-d'Armor, 29 Finistère, 56 Morbihan, and FRANCE (national roll-up) (with times). The Orages (thunderstorms) entries appear only in the JAUNE list: Orages — jaune in 8 areas: 22 Côtes-d'Armor, 29 Finistère, 50 Manche, 56 Morbihan, 62 Pas-de-Calais, 76 Seine-Maritime, 80 Somme, and FRANCE (national roll-up). The archive states any area×hazard not listed was vert for the whole day, so the absence of any Orages entry in the ORANGE/ROUGE table is positive evidence no metropolitan département, coastal zone, or the national roll‑up was orange or red for 'orages' on 2026-10-22. Comparison: condition not met. Conclusion: NO.
Source: vigilance.meteofrance.frSources used to resolve this market
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