🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 27
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169 bets · 7.9K credits2
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ScienceOpened Sep 25 · Results Sep 27
Will at least one area in Spain be put on AEMET 'aviso naranja' or 'aviso rojo' (orange or red warning) for extreme heat on September 26?
41%
Stable · last 24h
📊 104 bettors💎 2.4K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 27🤖 Context
The market required that AEMET place at least one Spanish area on aviso naranja or aviso rojo for extreme high temperatures at any time during the calendar day September 26, 2026. AEMET’s Meteoalerta archive for that date shows no areas on naranja or rojo for any hazard, though 66 areas were given amarillo (yellow) heat warnings. Because zero areas reached naranja or rojo for heat on September 26, 2026, the condition is not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No41%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 59% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: at least one Spanish area was placed on AEMET 'aviso naranja' (orange) or 'aviso rojo' (red) for extreme high temperatures (heat) at any time during the calendar day 2026-09-26 (Spain local date, CEST/UTC+02:00). Observations: the supplied AEMET Meteoalerta archived warnings for 2026-09-26 state explicitly: 'At NARANJA or ROJO at any point on 2026-09-26: NONE — no área in Spain reached naranja or rojo for any hazard on this date.' The archive does show AMARILLO (yellow) heat warnings in 66 areas, but yellow does not satisfy the market's orange/red requirement. Comparison: 0 areas reached naranja or rojo for heat on 2026-09-26, so the condition is not met. Outcome: NO.
Source: aemet.esKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 41%
- Predictions made
- 104
- Credits staked
- 2,359
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 25, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 25, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 27, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- aemet.es
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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