ScienceOpened Sep 18 · Results Oct 1

Will any wildfire in metropolitan France be reported as burning at least 1,000 hectares?

19%

Stable · last 24h

📊 285 bettors💎 7.9K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Oct 1

🤖 Context

The market pays yes if, between September 19, 2026 and September 30, 2026 inclusive, any single wildfire in metropolitan France is reported to have burned 1,000 hectares or more in an official departmental communiqué or by the Ministry of the Interior, or is reported that way by at least two major national news organisations. An official report about the Gironde megafire states it was declared extinguished on 28 September and that the fire which began on 22 July burned 42,000 hectares, with that report published on 29 September. Because this is a single wildfire in metropolitan France reported as having burned well over 1,000 hectares during the specified window, the market resolves yes.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

19%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 81% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: - Premise (La Croix, 2026-09-29): The Gironde megafire was officially declared extinguished on Monday 28 September, and the fire that began on 22 July burned 42,000 hectares, the largest in France since 1949. Source states: “Ce n’est que lundi 28 septembre… que le mégafeu girondin a officiellement été déclaré ‘éteint’… Parti le 22 juillet, le feu a parcouru 42 000 hectares.” (https://www.la-croix.com/societe/feux-de-forets-comment-sait-on-qu-un-incendie-est-vraiment-eteint-20260929) → Inference: This is a single wildfire incident with total burned area ≥1,000 ha, and both the declaration (28 Sept) and the report (29 Sept) fall within the 19–30 Sept window named in the question. - Premise (France 24/AFP, 2026-09-04): The “mega-fire that started in France’s Gironde region, near Bordeaux” confirms the location is in mainland France. (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260904-record-european-fires-burn-over-500-000-hectares-over-summer) → Inference: The incident is in metropolitan France. → Conclusion: Between 19 and 30 September 2026 inclusive, there was a report of a single wildfire incident in metropolitan France that had burned at least 1,000 hectares. Therefore, YES.

Source: la-croix.com