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ScienceOpened Sep 4 · Results Sep 6
Will any metropolitan French department, coastal vigilance zone, or the national map be orange or red for heatwave on September 5?
93%
Stable · last 24h
📊 319 bettors💎 12.1K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 6🤖 Context
The market is a yes if the official Météo‑France vigilance map for September 5, 2026 shows at least one metropolitan French department, any metropolitan coastal vigilance zone, or the national France map in orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for heatwave at any time that day. Météo‑France's archived map for September 5, 2026 shows several metropolitan departments at orange for canicule: Ardèche (07), Aude (11), Drôme (26), Gard (30), Hérault (34) and Pyrénées‑Orientales (66) from 04:00 to 22:00 UTC, and Vaucluse (84) from 10:00 to 22:00 UTC, and the national France roll‑up is also orange from 04:00 to 22:00 UTC. Because those orange canicule entries on 5 September 2026 meet the market's condition, the outcome is yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes93%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 93% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: On 2026-09-05, at least one metropolitan French département, any metropolitan coastal vigilance zone, or the metropolitan France national roll-up is orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for heatwave (canicule) at any time on that date. Target date/window: 2026-09-05 (entire calendar date). Observations matched (from the supplied Météo‑France archived map for 2026-09-05): several metropolitan départements are listed at orange for Canicule on 2026-09-05 — 07 Ardèche (orange) 2026-09-05T04:00:00Z–2026-09-05T22:00:00Z; 11 Aude (orange) 04:00–22:00Z; 26 Drôme (orange) 04:00–22:00Z; 30 Gard (orange) 04:00–22:00Z; 34 Hérault (orange) 04:00–22:00Z; 66 Pyrénées-Orientales (orange) 04:00–22:00Z; 84 Vaucluse (orange) 2026-09-05T10:00:00Z–2026-09-05T22:00:00Z. The national roll‑up (FRANCE) is also orange for Canicule 2026-09-05T04:00:00Z–2026-09-05T22:00:00Z. Comparison: the presence of these orange-level canicule entries on 2026-09-05 satisfies the market's YES condition.
Source: vigilance.meteofrance.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 93%
- Predictions made
- 319
- Credits staked
- 12,053
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 4, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 4, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 6, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- vigilance.meteofrance.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given that the forecast indicates multiple regions in metropolitan France will reach orange alert for heatwave, it's safe to say there will be alerts tomorrow.
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