ScienceOpened Sep 29 · Results Oct 1

Will any metropolitan French département, coastal zone, or 'FRANCE' be orange or red for rain‑flooding on 30 September?

88%

Stable · last 24h

📊 227 bettors💎 9.4K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Oct 1

🤖 Context

The market required that Météo‑France's official vigilance map show at least one mainland département, a coastal zone, or the national roll‑up "FRANCE" at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for the hazard "pluie‑inondation" at any time during 30 September 2026 (local time in metropolitan France). The Météo‑France archive for 30 September 2026 shows Ardèche (07) orange from 2026-09-30T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-30T12:00:00Z, Lozère (48) orange from 04:00Z to 12:00Z, Bouches‑du‑Rhône (13) orange from 10:00Z to 22:00Z, Gard (30) red from 06:00Z to 22:00Z, Hérault (34) red from 06:00Z to 22:00Z, and the national roll‑up FRANCE red from 06:00Z to 22:00Z. Because one or more metropolitan départements and the national roll‑up were shown at orange or red for 'pluie‑inondation' on 30 September 2026, the market resolves to yes.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

88%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 88% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: At least one metropolitan département, coastal zone, or the national roll‑up 'FRANCE' is at vigilance level orange (3) or rouge (4) for hazard 'pluie-inondation' at any time during 2026-09-30 (local time in metropolitan France). Target window: the calendar date 2026-09-30. Observations (official Météo‑France Vigilance archived map for 2026-09-30): 07 Ardèche — Pluie-inondation — orange — 2026-09-30T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-30T12:00:00Z; 13 Bouches-du-Rhône — Pluie-inondation — orange — 2026-09-30T10:00:00Z to 2026-09-30T22:00:00Z; 30 Gard — Pluie-inondation — rouge — 2026-09-30T06:00:00Z to 2026-09-30T22:00:00Z; 34 Hérault — Pluie-inondation — rouge — 2026-09-30T06:00:00Z to 2026-09-30T22:00:00Z; 48 Lozère — Pluie-inondation — orange — 2026-09-30T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-30T12:00:00Z; FRANCE (national roll-up) — Pluie-inondation — rouge — 2026-09-30T06:00:00Z to 2026-09-30T22:00:00Z. Comparison: One or more metropolitan départements (and the national roll-up FRANCE) are explicitly listed at orange or rouge for 'pluie-inondation' on 2026-09-30, so the condition is satisfied.

Source: vigilance.meteofrance.fr