Will Chile have at least one earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists one or more events with magnitude 4.9 or greater whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on October 9, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on October 12, 2026, and whose epicenter falls within the geographic area targeted by the market's USGS query for Chile. Otherwise NO. • Any single event that meets the magnitude and location requirements counts. • Source: USGS earthquake catalog.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 25%, based on 227 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

25%

Predictions made

227

Credits staked

8,592

Comments

4

Opened

Oct 8, 2026

Closes

Oct 9, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 12, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 9, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 12, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 25% and NO 75%, based on 227 predictions and 8.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Chile have at least one earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Chile have at least one earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.