🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 12 · Results Sep 15
Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater occur in Indonesia?
28%
Stable · last 24h
246 bets · 7.2K credits1
Details →
ScienceOpened Jul 27 · Results Jul 28
Will any French department be in 'Niveau Rouge' (top alert for extreme heat) for a heatwave on July 28, 2026?
30%
Stable · last 24h
📊 570 bettors💎 15.9K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 28🤖 Context
YES if Météo‑France's official departmental vigilance map or formal vigilance bulletin shows one or more French departments assigned 'Niveau Rouge' for the phenomenon labelled "canicule" for any time overlapping July 28, 2026 between 00:00 and 23:59:59 CEST (local France time). Otherwise NO. If Météo‑France publishes a different official product that explicitly supersedes its departmental map or bulletins, that Météo‑France product controls, and only departments explicitly shown by Météo‑France as red for the hazard "canicule" count.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No30%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Contemporaneous sources derived from Météo‑France data for 2026-07-28 report only vigilance jaune for the phenomenon 'canicule' and do not report any département at vigilance rouge on that date. Franceinfo (published 2026-07-28) explicitly states its content is generated from Météo‑France data and lists 20 départements in vigilance jaune for 28 July. CNews (published 2026-07-28) likewise lists those 20 départements in vigilance jaune for that day. Météo‑France’s informational page (23/07/2026) notes the last vigilance rouge canicule was triggered on 2026-06-21. None of the supplied evidence shows any département at Niveau Rouge for canicule overlapping 2026-07-28, so based on the provided sources the official Météo‑France departmental vigilance product did not show red for canicule on that date.
Source: franceinfo.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 30%
- Predictions made
- 570
- Credits staked
- 15,934
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 27, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 28, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- franceinfo.fr, cnews.fr, meteofrance.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
Related predictions
See all →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 19
Will an H3 rocket launch JAXA’s MMX mission from Yoshinobu on 20 October?
50%
Stable · last 24h
0 bets · 0 creditsNEW0
Details →🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 12 · Results Sep 15
Will Shishaldin reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?
15%
Stable · last 24h
73 bets · 2.3K credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 12 · Results Sep 16
Will the tropical cyclone named 'Moke' become a hurricane?
27%
Stable · last 24h
72 bets · 2.2K credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 19 · Results Sep 20
Will Tropical Storm Norbert make landfall on any main Hawaiian island?
61%
Stable · last 24h
2 bets · 20 credits1
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Sep 12 · Results Oct 16
Will Crew‑13's Crew Dragon 'Grace' launch from SLC‑40 and dock at the ISS?
85%
Stable · last 24h
201 bets · 5.5K credits1
Details →