Will Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier lose its remaining ice shelf by end of 2026?

🤖 Context

YES if by December 31, 2026, the Thwaites Glacier’s remaining ice shelf has disintegrated, as confirmed by satellite imagery or a glaciological authority (e.g., International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration). NO if it remains intact.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 31, 2026. The outcome will be settled against livescience.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 30%, based on 17 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

30%

Predictions made

17

Credits staked

216

Comments

0

Opened

Jun 2, 2026

Closes

Nov 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Dec 31, 2026

Resolution source

livescience.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Dec 31, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 30% and NO 70%, based on 17 predictions and 216 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against livescience.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier lose its remaining ice shelf by end of 2026?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier lose its remaining ice shelf by end of 2026?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.