Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?

54%
+18% last 24h

63%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the National Hurricane Center's operational advisories or official tropical cyclone statements record Hurricane Karina with 1‑minute maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph (Saffir–Simpson Category 5) at any advisory time no later than September 8, 2026. Otherwise NO. Post‑season best-track revisions after that date do not change the market outcome.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 82 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith only a week until resolution and Karina already impacting, this could easily hit Category 5. The NHC's current reports suggest it's on track, so I'm betting on YES.

54%
+18% last 24h

71%
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75%
Stable · last 24h

59%
Stable · last 24h

68%
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51%
Stable · last 24h
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