Will Alaska be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists one or more earthquakes located in Alaska (USA) with reported magnitude greater than or equal to 5.3 at any time on or after 00:00 UTC on September 3, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 6, 2026. Otherwise NO. The USGS earthquake catalog is the authoritative source.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 17%, based on 39 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

17%

Predictions made

39

Credits staked

1,318

Comments

0

Opened

Sep 2, 2026

Closes

Sep 3, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 6, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 17% and NO 83%, based on 39 predictions and 1.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Alaska be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Alaska be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.