🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25 · Results Oct 26
Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?
32%
Stable · last 24h
962 bets · 33.7K credits12
Details →
PoliticsOpened Sep 19 · Results Oct 4
Will aid for businesses hit by the Gironde wildfires be extended?
32%
Stable · last 24h
📊 348 bettors💎 14K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 4🤖 Context
YES if, no later than October 4, 2026, two or more independent French news organisations report that the national government has announced the exceptional aid programme for businesses affected by the Gironde wildfires will be extended to a date after October 4, 2026. Preferably this appears in a press release from the Prime Minister's office or the relevant ministry, but ordinary reporting by at least two independent outlets is sufficient. Discussions, proposals, or expressions of intent without an announced new end date do not count. Announcements that increase aid amounts while keeping the programme end date at October 4, 2026 count as NO. If an extension is announced only for a clearly specified subset of the originally targeted Gironde businesses, it counts as YES if the announcement explicitly sets a new end date later than October 4, 2026 for that subset.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No32%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 68% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Several independent French media outlets (Le Figaro, Franceinfo, Ouest-France, La Tribune, BFMTV, etc.) reported in mid-September 2026 that the government had extended exceptional aid to businesses affected by the fires in Gironde (and in Landes) "until October 4, 2026," via a decree published on September 19, 2026.[lefigaro +4] No consulted source indicates a new announcement, subsequent to this extension, setting an end date beyond October 4, 2026. All the
Source: entreprendre.service-public.gouv.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 32%
- Predictions made
- 348
- Credits staked
- 14,002
- Comments
- 6
- Opened
- Sep 19, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 3, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 5, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- entreprendre.service-public.gouv.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 6 comments
Related predictions
See all →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will any city or department in metropolitan France be put under a legally binding curfew?
94%
Stable · last 24h
1008 bets · 40.8K credits14
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 2 · Results Nov 4
Will Missouri use the Republican-backed congressional map for ballots in the November general election?
40%
Stable · last 24h
575 bets · 18.8K credits6
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 3 · Results Nov 4
Will the Missouri Secretary of State tell every county to use the 2022 congressional map for the 2026 general election?
64%
Stable · last 24h
565 bets · 18.8K credits4
Details →📊Politics·PollsCloses Oct 24 · Results Oct 25
Will Donald Trump's job approval be above 37% on Oct 24?
50%
+9% last 24h
501 bets · 13.7K credits3
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 26 · Results Oct 27
Will Iran and Saudi Arabia announce Iran-mediated talks between Riyadh and the Houthis?
33%
Stable · last 24h
501 bets · 17.3K credits2
Details →