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Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth and land or splash down?
90%
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616 bets · 22.2K credits7
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ScienceOpened Sep 23 · Results Sep 26
Will a SpaceX Falcon 9 carrying USSF-385 lift off from SLC-4E at Vandenberg on September 26?
80%
Stable · last 24h
📊 164 bettors💎 6.6K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 26🤖 Context
The market required that the USSF-385 Falcon 9 depart the launch pad at SLC-4E, meaning it clears the launch mount and begins ascent sometime on the local date September 26, 2026. Contemporary reports, including a SpaceX post cited by Basenor and live coverage from Spaceflight Now, show the Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base at 14:01 UTC on September 26, 2026 (about 07:01 PDT). Because the vehicle cleared the pad and began ascent on that local date, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes80%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 80% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied evidence contains multiple independent, contemporaneous reports that the USSF-385 Falcon 9 lifted off from SLC-4E on 2026-09-26. The Basenor write-up explicitly states “lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base” and cites a SpaceX X post confirming liftoff at 14:01 UTC on 2026-09-26. Spaceflight Now published/live-posted coverage of the event (their YouTube live video titled that the Falcon 9 "launches"), and Spaceflight Now’s launch-schedule page shows a “Breaking News” entry reporting the launch. The timestamp reported (14:01 UTC on 2026-09-26 ≈ 07:01 PDT) falls on the local date Sept 26, 2026, so the rocket cleared the pad during that local date.
Source: basenor.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 80%
- Predictions made
- 164
- Credits staked
- 6,580
- Comments
- 5
- Opened
- Sep 23, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 26, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 26, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- basenor.com, spaceflightnow.com, youtube.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 5 comments
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