Will a named tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern North Pacific make landfall on Mexico's mainland?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 19, 2026, the center of a tropical cyclone that was officially given a name by the Eastern North Pacific basin authority crosses the coastline of continental (mainland) Mexico. Landfalls only on offshore Mexican islands do not count, and systems that were never assigned a name do not count. The landfall must be stated in an advisory, advisory archive/tracking product, or post‑event summary by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) or Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). If neither agency is decisive, YES if at least two major independent news agencies explicitly report the landfall citing advisory/track data; otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 20, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 340 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

63%

Predictions made

340

Credits staked

6,821

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 16, 2026

Closes

Sep 20, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 20, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 20, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 20, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 63% and NO 37%, based on 340 predictions and 6.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a named tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern North Pacific make landfall on Mexico's mainland?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a named tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern North Pacific make landfall on Mexico's mainland?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.