Will a magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with numeric magnitude 5.5 or greater recorded as located in Indonesia that occurred on or after 00:00 UTC on September 23, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 26, 2026. A magnitude exactly 5.5 qualifies. The U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog is the primary source, and independent seismological agencies or major reputable news outlets reporting the same event(s) may be used as supplemental evidence.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 23%, based on 189 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

23%

Predictions made

189

Credits staked

6,077

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 22, 2026

Closes

Sep 23, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 26, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 23, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 26, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 23% and NO 77%, based on 189 predictions and 6.1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.