Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?

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Resolved: No
Results Oct 8YES if, no later than 05:34 on October 8, 2026, the government of Ukraine issues an on‑the‑record public apology or an explicit retraction addressed to the Republic of Korea that either (a) uses the words "apologize" or "apology" with an explicit reference to the South Korean government and the specific POW claim, or (b) explicitly retracts President Zelenskyy's claim that North Korean POWs were sent to South Korea. Otherwise NO. • The statement must be on the record and addressed to the Republic of Korea. Official channels include the Office of the President, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, or remarks by the President or Foreign Minister. • Vague expressions of regret or statements that the matter is under review do not count. • Source: Official Ukrainian government statement or reporting by two or more major independent news outlets.
How markets are built and settled11%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 89% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Since the deadline established (October 8, 2026, at 05:34 CEST) has passed, no official statement has been recorded from the Office of the President or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine containing an explicit apology or a formal retraction addressed to the Republic of Korea regarding the North Korean prisoners of war.
Source: president.gov.uaSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledAlthough South Korea demanded official apologies following Volodymyr Zelenskyy's speech at the UN revealing the secret transfer of North Korean prisoners, Ukraine maintained that no confidentiality agreement had been violated and did not retract its statements.
No, not likely.
Unlikely
Yes
That's how it is

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