🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 12
Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?
68%
Stable · last 24h
347 bets · 7.6K credits1
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 23 · Results Jul 27
Will U.S. forces carry out air, missile, artillery, or armed-drone strikes against targets in Iran on any date from July 24 through July 26, 2026?
82%
Stable · last 24h
📊 518 bettors💎 12.4K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 27🤖 Context
YES if the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Central Command posts on defense.gov or centcom.mil by 11:00 AM on July 27, 2026 (Eastern Time) an explicit press release or statement saying U.S. forces conducted airstrikes, missile strikes, artillery strikes, or armed-drone strikes against targets in Iran on any date from July 24 through July 26, 2026. The statement must be posted on defense.gov or centcom.mil in HTML or PDF and must explicitly name Iran. Social-media-only posts or third-party reports do not count unless the identical text also appears on defense.gov or centcom.mil, and if both sites post conflicting material the earliest explicit post is authoritative.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes82%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 82% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple supplied sources report U.S. strikes in Iran occurring up to and including July 24, 2026. A CBS live-updates entry dated 2026-07-24 reports “an overnight U.S. attack” on Khuzestan province (killing at least four, per Iranian state media). CENTCOM’s public release documents U.S. strikes against Iranian military targets in the nights immediately prior (CENTCOM video/release, July 23). Analytical and news accounts (ISW/Al Jazeera) state the U.S. had paused strikes on July 25–26 and explicitly note there had been no U.S. strikes since July 24, implying the last strikes occurred on/through July 24. Taken together, the supplied evidence shows U.S. forces conducted strikes in Iran on July 24, 2026 (and no strikes on July 25–26).
Source: cbsnews.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 82%
- Predictions made
- 518
- Credits staked
- 12,376
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 23, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 24, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 27, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- cbsnews.com, centcom.mil, aljazeera.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh yeah, it’s happening. the pentagon loves a spectacle! expect some fireworks in iran around that time. 🎆
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