Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

72%
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63%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than August 22, 2026, the National Hurricane Center in an advisory or its final best-track, or an explicit official statement from Florida state or local emergency authorities, or reports from two independent major news organizations indicate the cyclone’s center crossed Florida’s political coastline while the NHC classified it as at least a tropical storm (sustained winds ≥39 mph / 63 km/h). Landfall in another U.S. state does not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith the NHC's current assessment, landfall in Florida as a tropical storm seems likely. There's enough time for conditions to strengthen before the deadline.

72%
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27%
Stable · last 24h

23%
Stable · last 24h

35%
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31%
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45%
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