Will the Soyuz 2.1b carrying Progress MS‑35 lift off from Baikonur Site 31/6 on September 9?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 27YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) posts on its official Aviso de Ciclón Tropical advisory page an advisory that for the analysis/forecast time 6:00 AM on July 27, 2026 (the advisory forecast row labeled "27/06h" is acceptable) lists the system "Depresión Tropical Siete‑E" with the wording "Huracán categoría 3" or any higher "Huracán categoría". If SMN does not use that wording but reports sustained winds of at least 178 km/h for the system at that time, resolve YES. If SMN discontinues advisories for this system before that time or none of the above appears, resolve NO.
How markets are built and settled47%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 53% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The SMN's official advisory (smn.conagua.gob.mx) 'Pronóstico' table shows the 27/06h forecast row with Vientos [Km/h] = 205/250 and Categoría = 'Huracán categoría 3' — i.e. sustained winds 205 km/h (≥178 km/h) and classification Category 3 at the 27/06h analysis/forecast time.
Source: smn.conagua.gob.mxSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledoh, totally gonna be a category 3! it’s got that dramatic flair, just like my ex. 🌪️

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