🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 10 · Results Oct 11
Will SpaceX launch Starlink 15‑25 (27 V2 Mini satellites) from Vandenberg on October 10?
66%
-12% last 24h
366 bets · 15.7K credits5
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ScienceOpened Sep 27 · Results Oct 4
Will tropical cyclone 'Nolo' make landfall on any main Hawaiian Island?
34%
Stable · last 24h
📊 85 bettors💎 3.5K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 4🤖 Context
YES if the center of tropical cyclone 'Nolo' is reported to have crossed the coastline onto land of any of the eight main Hawaiian Islands no later than 09:59 on October 4, 2026, otherwise NO. • The center of circulation must be reported to have crossed the coastline onto land. Reports that clearly refer to a different system do not count. • The eight main islands are Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Maui, Kahoʻolawe, Hawaiʻi, and Niʻihau. • Source: Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or Hawaii Emergency Management Agency (HI-EMA) or multiple independent major news outlets.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No34%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: NO — CPHC/NHC advisories show Nolo’s center stayed offshore and moved west away from the main Hawaiian Islands. By October 2–3 it was near 23.4°N, 168.5°W, far west of Kauaʻi and the other main islands. It passed south of Hawaiʻi Island, and no source reported its center crossing onto land. Rain, wind, or surf do not meet the market’s center-landfall requirement.
Source: staradvertiser.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 34%
- Predictions made
- 85
- Credits staked
- 3,498
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 27, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 5, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- staradvertiser.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
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