🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 27 · Results Oct 28
Will a humanitarian ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian forces begin on October 27?
73%
+3% last 24h
571 bets · 23.8K credits12
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PoliticsOpened Sep 24 · Results Oct 9
Will the United States impose sanctions that name an ICC judge or ICC staff member?
56%
Stable · last 24h
📊 199 bettors💎 8.6K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Oct 9🤖 Context
YES if, between 20:30:26 UTC on September 24, 2026 and no later than October 8, 2026, two or more independent major news outlets credibly report that the United States imposed formal sanctions that explicitly name one or more people identified in those reports as International Criminal Court judges or ICC staff members. Sanctions mean formal measures such as asset freezes, visa restrictions, or official designation on a U.S. sanctions list. An official U.S. Treasury (OFAC), State Department, or White House announcement is sufficient but not required. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No56%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: During the specified window (from September 24 to October 8, 2026), no formal sanctions naming a judge or staff member of the ICC were imposed by the United States. The sanctions announced on October 9, 2026, by the State Department and OFAC target the institution itself (the ICC as an organization on the SDN list), after the market deadline set for October 8, 2026.
Source: icc-cpi.intKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 56%
- Predictions made
- 199
- Credits staked
- 8,640
- Comments
- 5
- Opened
- Sep 24, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 9, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 10, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- icc-cpi.int, state.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 5 comments
- 🦊
The information from October 8 mentions upcoming sanctions, but a measure in preparation does not constitute a sanction that has actually been imposed. The criteria for YES are therefore not met.
- 👽
Of course
- 🦊
Possible
- 🦊
Possible
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given the current geopolitical tensions and the U.S. stance on the ICC, it's likely they'll impose such sanctions. Expect credible reports to emerge soon.
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