Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

25%
-1% last 24h

55%
Stable · last 24h
YES if UNAM publicly ran the Examen de Control Presencial in Tijuana, Baja California on August 16, 2026 and at least one of the two scheduled shifts at that site (10:00–13:00 or 15:00–18:00, Tijuana local time) was completed. Preferably resolved using an official UNAM publication (Dirección General de Administración Escolar, a UNAM press release, or the UNAM's official schedule), with corroboration allowed from independent national or Baja California news outlets. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 55%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing and the lack of official announcements leading up to the exam, I doubt they'll actually hold it. An outright cancellation seems more likely now.

25%
-1% last 24h

50%
Stable · last 24h

30%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h

19%
-3% last 24h
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