Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

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90%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 21This market will resolve to 'YES' if the United Nations High-Level Meeting on Improving Global Road Safety, scheduled for July 20–21, 2026, in New York City, takes place as planned. It will resolve to 'NO' if the meeting is canceled or postponed before the scheduled dates.
How markets are built and settled90%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 90% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple contemporaneous, authoritative sources in the provided evidence confirm the meeting took place on the scheduled dates. The WHO’s published Progress Declaration states participants “assembled at the United Nations in New York on 20 and 21 July 2026” (the meeting’s outcome document). UN Meetings/press material (20 July 2026) lists the General Assembly high‑level meeting on Improving Global Road Safety, and independent reporting by Xinhua (21 July 2026) describes and photographs Jean Todt and WHO DG Tedros addressing the Assembly on 20 July and reports the Assembly’s adoption of the draft resolution. Additional UN/UNRSF press and UN WebTV event pages show related events and live streams on 20 July. None of the supplied sources report a cancellation or postponement. On this basis the meeting did take place as scheduled on 20–21 July 2026 in New York.
Source: cdn.who.intSources used to resolve this market
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