Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 16YES if CONAGUA's official daily storage bulletin or equivalent shows the Sistema Cutzamala total storage percentage at least 90% on any day no later than October 15, 2026. Otherwise NO. • Only a daily storage percentage published by CONAGUA counts. Published volumes alone do not count unless CONAGUA also publishes a combined percentage. • If CONAGUA does not publish a percentage, YES also counts if at least two independent national news outlets citing CONAGUA report a CONAGUA figure of at least 90%. • Source: CONAGUA
How markets are built and settled78%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 78% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Public sources published within the allowed window indicate that the Cutzamala system exceeded 90% of its capacity before October 15, 2026. The most compelling result found is an article from Uno TV dated October 15, 2026, which reports a combined storage of 92.35%, according to data from the daily report of the CONAGUA basin organization. This figure exceeds the threshold by 2.35 percentage points.
Source: unotv.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith only about two weeks left, the Cutzamala system still needs to hit that 90% mark. Given recent drought conditions, it's unlikely to happen in time.

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